We are tracking the potential risk for severe weather for today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the counties that border Lake Michigan back into the Slight Risk Area (Level 2 our of 5) for severe weather, while reducing much of state to the lowest risk; a Marginal Risk Area (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms.
A round of strong storms that developed mid-morning produced locally heavy rain and small hail, along with frequent lightning. Another round of severe weather may develop this evening and tonight, which could feature more locally heavy rain, strong winds and large hail as the primary threats. An isolated tornado isn't likely, but isn't impossible.
The larger area of severe weather risk right along the front stretches all the way from Michigan to Texas (below).
When a risk area is issued, it indicates confidence in the presence of atmospheric ingredients needed for severe storms: wind turning with height, lift (the cold front), energy (warm temperatures), and moisture.
At this time, all severe weather hazards are on the table: damaging gusts, brief spin-up tornadoes, and hail. Make sure you check the forecast at least once a day to get the most recent fine-tuned forecast!
TIMING:
Models have been hinting at a few storms forming right around noon. Those storms that passed through may limit severe development in the evening, as they took some of the energy in the atmosphere.
Most look to stay dry during the middle to late afternoon. The cold front will not start to move into West Michigan until the late evening and overnight.
The cold front will generate strong storms as it moves through, anytime between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. Saturday. With the expected timing after sunset and not during peak daylight when the sun is out, the more limited energy might also mean weaker storms overall. The earlier round of storms may also act to stabilize the atmosphere, with less available energy for the night storms to use.
Still, all severe weather hazards are possible with damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail the primary threats. Brief spin-up tornadoes remain a secondary threat, but the risk is non-zero.
Once the front slides through, scattered showers on the back side of the front will slowly taper down Saturday morning.
For the latest details on the weather in West Michigan, head to the FOX 17 Weather page.
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