Now that the windy system is behind us, attention turns to the next Spring system arriving Sunday. This system, depending on the track, will bring winter impacts OR stormy impacts to West Michigan. Right now the track of the low favors most of West Michigan receiving an initial wave of light snow, followed briefly by freezing rain, and then rain and thunderstorms for the bulk of the day.
The heavier snow and ice impacts will be in north-central lower Michigan and the U.P. with the current track of the low. However if that changes and the track nudges further south, there is a better chance for more of West Michigan to have winter impacts.
SETUP
A large low pressure system coming out of the Rocky Mountains will be strengthening as it moves towards the Great Lakes this weekend. There is a heavy rain and isolated severe storm threat for Sunday afternoon and evening, as temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s. The primary risk area in orange (Enhanced Risk, level 3 out of 5) is to our south. But much of West Michigan is in the yellow Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for a few storms capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts.
The tornado threat is low, but not zero. The further south you go, the better environment there is for rotation, but it can't be completely ruled out for West Michigan.
TIMING
Initially temperatures Sunday morning will be cold enough for a band of light snow very early Sunday morning. Totals will be around an inch or two. North of I-96 where colder air lingers longer, there will be higher accumulations.
There is a few hours of opportunity for the snow to transition to a rain/snow mix, with only a glaze of ice expected.
Much of the rest of the day will be cloudy, breezy and warm as the low pressure system gets closer. Rain will start streaming in during the late afternoon and evening, mostly northwest of Grand Rapids. Wind will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
The better chances for thunderstorms, including some with strong wind gusts, will be in the late evening and overnight. Rain will be heavy at times as well, enough to cause ponding on the roads and flooding in prone areas. Since we are fresh off of the flooding event from last Tuesday, soils are saturated and it will be easier for flooding to occur. It will also be easier for gusty winds to blow down trees and limbs weakened from the rain on Tuesday and gusty winds on Friday.
Once the storms sweep through, cold air wraps around on the back side of the low. Rain will quickly change to heavy snow early Monday morning, with accumulations likely.
There is a WINTER STORM WATCH for Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta counties from Saturday night through Monday morning. Ice accumulation around 0.1" possible, along with total snow accumulation of 3-5".
Monday will be a cold and blustery day with snow showers. High temperatures happen in the very early morning (in the 50s), then fall into the 30s during the late morning.
For the latest details on the weather in West Michigan, head to the FOX 17 Weather page.
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