GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — In order to truly understand how the 2024 election cycle might play out, it's important to review the historical data that got us here.
FOX 17 spoke with Dante Chinni, a Research Specialist in Michigan State University's School of Journalism and Director of the American Communities Project, to learn more about the importance of Tuesday's primary election in Michigan.
During that conversation, Chinni first pointed to the 2016 Presidential Primary, which is the last time Donald Trump did not run as the incumbent candidate (before this year).
While Trump won the state as a whole, he failed to pick up most counties in West Michigan, like Kent, Ottawa, Allegan, Newaygo and Oceana. Ted Cruz won those counties back in 2016.
Chinni said Haley might have similar luck.
"I would not be surprised to see that be a bastion of support for Nikki Haley on Tuesday," he said. "That does not mean Nikki Haley is going to win the state of Michigan. It may not even mean that she wins Kent County, but it's a sign that there is softness in that part of the vote for Trump.”
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He continued to say, “Those primary results were, I think, an indication that Trump was going to struggle in Kent County," Chinni told FOX 17. "Now, he still won Kent County in 2016. He did, but his margin shrank dramatically."
Adding even more context, in reference to the 2016 general election, Chinni said, “Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, by about 11,000 votes. Really, in a state of 10 million people, that is a tight margin.”
You can watch FOX 17's full conversation with Chinni here:
Trump's victory in Michigan in the 2016 general election was an anomaly, according to recent trends. It's the only time in the previous eight general elections when Michigan sided with a Republican nominee.
That year also happened to set a state record for voter turnout in a primary with 2.6 million people.
Not by coincidence, Chinni said if there's one thing voters should pay attention to during Tuesday's primary, it should be voter turnout.
“We think we know who's going to win both these nominations, right? If you look at what the total turnout is for Biden, and the total turnout for the Democrats, and the total turnout for Trump, you might get a sense of who has the enthusiasm edge right now," he said. "That's that's probably the most important thing.”
