GRAND RAPIDS, Michigan. — A looming U.S. tariff on imports from Canada could drive up gasoline and diesel prices across the Midwest, with a 35 percent tax on Canadian energy imports potentially taking effect this Friday.
Refineries in Detroit and Chicago rely heavily on oil from the Alberta oil sands, one of the main sources of crude for the Great Lakes region. Analysts warn that if the tariff goes into effect, drivers in the region could see a noticeable spike at the pump.
“It would be extremely detrimental to put any sort of tariff on Canadian energy,” said GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan.
The proposed tariff is part of a broader set of trade measures, which also include threats of significant tariffs on Russian energy exports. De Haan cautioned that escalating tensions with Russia could further disrupt fuel markets.
“There’s also the risk of the Russia situation and President Trump growing very impatient with Vladimir Putin promising significant tariffs on Russia, which could be a big problem,” he said.
Russia is a major exporter of diesel, and the U.S. is already seeing diesel prices at their highest levels since last August. Further tariffs could lead to increased costs for industries that depend on diesel fuel, including commercial construction, transportation, and farming, costs that could be passed on to consumers.
“We saw a similar situation with skyrocketing diesel prices when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022,” De Haan said. “So unlike 2022, when the economy was reopening after COVID, there’s not going to be a surge in demand at the same time that these tariffs are enacted, so there’s a big difference here. But still, those heavy products, like diesel jet fuel, we could see more of an increase in those prices if those new tariffs on Russia do move ahead.”
In response to the tariff threats, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to reduce his country’s reliance on U.S. energy trade by investing in domestic infrastructure, including new oil and gas pipelines and nuclear power plants. Carney said his goal is to make Canada an “energy superpower.”
President Trump has issued several tariff threats and delays in the past, leaving uncertainty around whether the Friday deadline will hold.
