Rain, wind, cold, and the chance of snow showers arrive this week

Posted at 6:23 PM, Oct 27, 2019
and last updated 2019-10-27 18:23:17-04

WEST MICHIGAN — I outlined in a post last week (read it here) about the possibility of seeing our first snowflakes of the season later this week. That thought has not changed. What we do know with more certainty is a strong, moisture-laden fall storm system will begin impacting us on Wednesday this week. This system will strengthen as it moves north and our winds will increase on Thursday and Friday. It will also bring a decent slug of moisture with it from the Gulf of Mexico. While it may create significant snowfall in parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest, it does NOT appear to be a “snow storm” or big snowmaker for West Michigan.

P.M. and night rain showers are likely Wednesday and will continue into Thursday as the system tracks into Michigan. See the graphic below from the European forecast model valid for 6 P.M. Wednesday.

24 hours later at 6 P.M. Thursday (Halloween), we are expecting more rain showers. See image below. Notice the blue or snow behind this system in Illinois and Wisconsin, but we likely won’t wrap enough cold air into Michigan to see the changeover with snow until Thursday evening/night.

The last frame from our forecast model below is valid for 6 A.M.  Friday. Notice the mix of pink/blue/green over most of Michigan. That signifies at least a rain/snow/ice mix.  That trend of rain/snow will likely continue into Saturday and Sunday, but accumulation (if we see any at all) will be limited at this point. Wind will also be an issue Thursday into Friday sustained at about 15 to 25 or 20 to 30 mph from the north/west. So a cold, wet, blustery period to be sure.

Make sure to stay up on later forecasts this week as this system gets closer. We’ll look more specifically at the timing, wind, and other storm attributes as we go through the week. I also anticipate more beach/dune/bluff erosion from this storm at the immediate lakeshore. Get the complete West Michigan forecast at