More rain coming, severe weather possible

Posted at 1:46 PM, May 14, 2018
and last updated 2018-05-14 13:46:48-04

WEST MICHIGAN -- Most of us will get a well-deserved break from the rainfall for the rest of this afternoon and early this evening. That's a good thing, considering 1 to 3 inches of rain have already fallen since last night over portions of Barry, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, and Branch counties.

In fact, a Flood Watch is in effect for Barry, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, and Calhoun counties until 8 AM tomorrow:

A Flood Warning is in effect until 4:00 this afternoon for Van Buren and Kalamazoo counties. Portage Creek in Kalamazoo, the Portage River near Vicksburg, and many other rivers and streams in the area are running over their banks.

The break in the rain won't last long, as more showers and storms are expected to roll through tonight:

These storms continue to develop on the north side of a stationary front. As upper level disturbances continue to move along this boundary, more showers and storms are expected to develop in the Plains tonight, and move through West Michigan. Here is a look at where that stationary front is right now:

Another inch or more of rain is possible tonight, and the same areas that are experiencing flooding right now will have to watch for more of this heavy rain. This will maintain the existing flood threat at the very least, and perhaps make things worse if enough rain falls over the same flooded areas. Here is a look at predicted rainfall totals tonight into tomorrow morning courtesy of the North American forecast model:

Severe weather is also possible with the storms that are expected later this evening. Although this threat is significantly lower than the heavy rain threat, it's something we'll have to watch for this evening. Areas south of I-94 have the best chance of seeing severe thunderstorms:

Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be the primary threat, while 1" diameter hail looks less likely:

Warmer, drier weather is in the forecast for the middle part of the week, but more rain is possible by this weekend. Be sure to stay tuned to FOX 17 for more information and updates!