Warmer Temps And Rain Increase Flood Concerns

Posted at 10:40 PM, Feb 03, 2013
and last updated 2013-02-03 22:40:55-05

While most of this week will tend to be on the cold (or cool) and snowy side, it is becoming increasingly possible that it may not end that way. Our forecast models are hinting that we may be in for a warm up into the 40s by this weekend with a bigger storm coming in Sunday. Of course, it is still far off and anything can change.

The mid-afternoon model runs on Sunday are showing a developing low pressure system out of the Southern/Central Plains that would draw up a push of very warm air along with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As it stands now, Michigan would end up on the front side of this system which would place us in the warm sector with mainly rain. You can click here to see where this system is on Sunday morning. Notice the low over eastern Nebraska and all of the purple is potential precipitation. Here’s another forecast model for the same time showing the low pressure system over the panhandle of Oklahoma. So the placement is different, by both are showing the development of this system.  

If we jump ahead to Monday morning, the low on our European model is over northern Iowa. This model (at the same time) also shows the location of the low, only over southern Lake Michigan. Not too far off, but both track it to the west of Michigan keeping us on the warmer side of the system. Remember, low pressure tracks change all the time, but these are indications as to what may be coming.

This becomes of increased concern because of the flood watches, warnings, and advisories we’ve already had across the area from the last bout of melting snow, warmer temps, and significant rainfall. It’s possible if this system stays on this tracks, we could be looking at a repeat performance from mother nature, except there’s more snow on the ground this time. That means dense fog, rain, and flooding would accompany this system.

Make sure to stay up on later forecasts. More snow is on the way for Sunday night into Monday, Tuesday P.M. with another two to four inches or so, and more snow (and perhaps some rain) on Thursday. The attached photo was posted to my Facebook page (Kevin Craig Fox) by Kelli Van Dyken. Her cottage up north south of Big Rapids had flooded out last Monday from all the rain and melting snow.

Get more at Have a pleasant week!