WEST MICHIGAN — West Michigan has received it's first taste of Fall in the last week of August, and plenty are excited for less humidity, pumpkin spiced lattes, football, and fall colors. But, not far behind is cold and dreary Winter, as the NOAA just released an outlook regarding conditions for the 2025-2026 season.
ENSO Forecast: Early La Niña, Mid-Winter Transition
NOAA’s latest ENSO outlook, issued in August 2025, points to an early-season La Niña that will influence the fall and the start of winter. La Niña years typically bring colder air masses and enhanced lake-effect snow to West Michigan, thanks to stronger northwest flow across Lake Michigan.
However, by mid-winter (January–February), probabilities shift toward neutral conditions, which historically leads to more variable patterns: occasional thaws mixed with bursts of Arctic air. For West Michigan, this transition suggests an active start to winter, followed by a more up-and-down second half.
Temperature Outlook: Near Normal, But Swings Likely
The Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook for December through February shows Michigan in the “equal chances” category—meaning no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal temperatures.
Practically, this often means frequent swings averaging out around normal. West Michigan may see stretches of typical cold punctuated by short-lived warm ups. This has been a very common theme the last few Winters. These fluctuations could enhance freeze-thaw cycles, affecting roads and Lake Michigan ice coverage.
Precipitation & Snowfall: Leaning Wetter, Snow Potential Up
The southern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley is a bulls-eye for wetter than normal conditions this winter. Combined with near-normal temperatures, this points to a winter that is likely stormier and wetter than average. This usually means more lake effect snow earlier in the season, when La Nina is stronger.
Later in the season, we may see more rain/snow mix events, similar to 2022-2023 where La Nina was weakening and we endured a few freezing rain events between February and March.
West Michigan's 30-year average for snowfall is 77.8" each winter. The 2010s only averaged 71.9", and the 2020s are currently measuring 67.8" per winter, on average. Only two of the last 10 Winter's measured over 80" of snow!
For the latest details on the weather in West Michigan, head to the FOX 17 Weather page.
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