WEST MICHIGAN — The leftovers of what was once Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico are steadily working their way up the Mississippi River valley and towards the Great Lakes region. The circulation will move over central Wisconsin and into the western U.P. through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. This particular track will put the FOX 17 viewing area on the eastern side of the system, with the possibility of strong winds, locally heavy rain, and beach erosion with large waves on Lake Michigan.
Here is a look at where our FOX 17 Tropical Tracker takes Cristobal's leftovers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Although most areas will see less than one inch of rainfall from Cristobal due to its expected quick movement towards the north/northeast, some higher totals are possible northwest of Grand Rapids.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 6:00 P.M. across the area on Tuesday night. Future Track HD shows this first line of thunderstorms rolling through parts of the area sometime late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of West Michigan in a Marginal Risk for severe weather.
This could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for parts of the area at some point as some parameters might produce a higher threat than the current thinking. We're mainly talking about "directional wind shear," or a change in wind direction with height for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. It does appear that this parameter will be present during this time frame, which could emphasize our tornado threat a bit more. But as of now, our main threat still appears to be high wind gusts.
Regardless of what materializes in the severe weather department, strong winds will be with us for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Initially these winds will be out of the south on Tuesday night, and will switch to the west during the afternoon on Wednesday. Tuesday night, big waves will build over the open waters of Lake Michigan. These large waves will build along the shoreline on Wednesday as winds shift more to the west. In fact, there is a Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for most of Lake Michigan.
Here is the latest Marine Forecast for tomorrow:
The Moderate beach hazard risk mainly applies to the evening hours, as winds will largely be offshore during the morning and afternoon. But as winds become increasingly onshore, conditions will become more and more dangerous to swimmers as we head through Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. In fact, we'll probably be advertising a High Risk for swimmers on Wednesday for most of the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Once Cristobal's remnants move away, we expect much quieter weather conditions for Thursday, Friday, and the weekend. It will be quite cool, however! Be sure to tune in to FOX 17 for updates!