DEARBORN HEIGHTS, Mich. (WXYZ) — With March Madness underway, brackets are being filled out, bets are being placed and bold predictions are flying. But with billions of possible outcomes, is picking the perfect bracket really about skill — or is it mostly luck?
Watch Jeffrey's report below
Romeo Jesse has been competing in March Madness for eight years.
"I absolutely love college basketball. I think it's so entertaining," Jesse said.
For Jesse, confidence is key.
"I'm 100% confident that my bracket might not be perfect, but I know I'm going to win it all this year," Jesse said.
But the math behind a perfect bracket is staggering. Albert Cohen, co-director of the MSU Sports Analytics Graduate Program, breaks it down.
"You're looking at two to the power of 63 outcomes, which is something like 9.2 or 9.6 quintillion," Cohen said.
Cohen says the bottom line when filling out a bracket is that upsets will happen, which is part of the competition's charm. Purely trusting stats isn't the right path, and sometimes gut feelings mean something. But that's not to say a calculator isn't key.
"Yes, a calculator, which I'm sure would be smoking on fire by the time you're done, but I think a calculator will give you some realistic odds," Cohen said.
His statistical approach suggests working backwards — identifying the top teams first, then mapping their path to success.
"That might be a different way of filling out your bracket," Cohen said.
As for the odds of a perfect bracket, Cohen is not optimistic.
"I don't think we're going to see it in our lifetime," Cohen said.
Cohen also offers this advice for anyone diving into the numbers: "Don't be afraid to do your math homework. It will help with sports analytics," Cohen said.
For Jesse, March Madness means his hands are always full — basketball in one, phone in the other, with money on the line.
"I'm always dual wielding during all of March Madness," Jesse said.
But even with stakes involved, Jesse says he keeps perspective.
"If I lose, I won't be broke… but if I win, I'll be living pretty good," Jesse said.
In the end, Jesse says it comes down to competing against friends and having fun.
"Maybe in the end, you get their money and bragging rights and I think that's the biggest flex there is," Jesse said.
As for the skill-versus-luck debate, the answer appears to be both. But if perfection is the goal, lots of luck will have to be on your side.
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