GRAND HAVEN, Mich. — West Michigan's economy is showing early signs of a rebound, but a local economist says the ongoing war in Iran could threaten that progress.
WATCH: War in Iran could dampen West Michigan's economic recovery, Grand Valley economist warns
A recent report from Grand Valley State University shows business projections in the region are starting to improve after three months of negative readings, following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Brian Long, director of supply management research at Grand Valley State University, said the numbers came as a welcome surprise.
"We expected things to somewhat go sideways for most of 2026 but the numbers that we got were actually higher than just sideways and so that was a pleasant surprise," Long said.
Despite the improving outlook, some local businesses are still struggling. Garry Boyd, owner of the Unicorn Tavern in Grand Haven, said he has not felt any relief.
"I have not seen any relief, and I don't know that I will," Boyd said. "Tariffs I think, have played a big role in how I'm doing in the last year."
While business owners like Garry continue to feel the pinch, Long said the war could reverse any positive momentum in the region.
"The assumption is this war is a relatively short war. The President has indicated that. However, if it turns out to be one of these things that drags on for weeks or even months on end, then it's going to be a wet blanket on the economy," Long said.
Long said higher energy costs tied to a prolonged conflict would ripple across multiple industries in West Michigan.
"The industrial firms, the steel furniture companies, the office furniture entries, the firms that have a lot to do with automotive. All of those will feel the impact. Because now we're going to end up with inbound costs related to the heavier stuff that they are bringing in and outbound costs as they ship their product," Long said.
For Boyd, this year has already been the most difficult since they opened three years ago.
"Everyone is feeling it, and we're dependent on customers to come in the door all the time, and going out to eat isn't necessarily necessary for life," Boyd said.
Boyd said he is holding out hope that conditions stabilize before the summer tourist season arrives.
"I'm just hoping that, you know, we figure it out, and that by summertime, everything's kind of, maybe we got to even keel, and we can all enjoy a good, nice summer," Boyd said.
