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Nasty weather expected this weekend

Posted at 12:06 PM, Apr 12, 2018

WEST MICHIGAN- We haven't enjoyed many warm days until today, but it's the long term uncertainty that has us antsy as a major winter storm is headed to the state of Michigan.

What do we know that's going to happen so far?  There are still several uncertainties.  First of all, it's going to be warm and windy SOMEWHERE.  I know this sounds stupid, on the surface, but in reality, it will be determined by the position of the warm front.  Where this warm front sets up is still unknown about 24 hours away.

Picture above are several different computer model solutions for Friday afternoon.  Notice how all of them are completely different!  Our job behind the scenes is to decipher which one is the most likely solution for what actually happens.  This is why you've seen ups and downs on your weather app the last few days.  The last few runs are trending COLDER, but there's still going to be a warm, dry air mass in our southern counties.

But what about the precipitation on Saturday?  Looking at the above model solutions, this is a bit easier (although still tricky, because it's ice.)  An outlier of a few models have that cold air moving in early Saturday much further to the south than the others.  A Winter Storm Watch is in place for our northern counties ALREADY as a result!  I expect most of us to see a cold rain in excess of 1-2" this weekend!

Stay tuned later for updates, as this forecast will likely change and we can pinpoint it a little better over the next 12-24 hours.  Download the FOX 17 Weather App to keep track of the interactive radar.