WEST MICHIGAN — Low pressure approaching the western Great Lakes region this morning will continue to trek east/southeast this afternoon, and move through West Michigan overnight. As this low approaches and moves along a nearly stationary frontal boundary across the area, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) actually has upgraded much of the FOX 17 viewing area to a Slight Risk for severe weather late this afternoon into this evening from a Marginal Risk.
The main threat with these storms (if they do reach severe criteria) would be wind gusts of up to 60 mph, with 1″ diameter hail being a secondary threat. The greatest risk time is from 7:00pm until 11:00pm.
There are two factors, however, that could prevent these thunderstorms from becoming severe. One is cloud cover: Thick overcast would keep the atmosphere more stable as we head into the afternoon, and would inhibit thunderstorm development. At this point, however, it does look like we’ll see enough sunshine to contribute to the destabilization of the atmosphere.
Another thing that could inhibit the severity of these storms is the timing of the area of low pressure and associated jet stream energy moving into the area. At this point in time, it looks like both will arrive after sunset. If the low/jet arrived during the peak heating of the afternoon (between 2 PM and 5 PM), we would see much more explosive thunderstorm development. At this time, it appears that the storms will develop late enough to inhibit their severity.
I should probably mention a third inhibiting factor to the severity of these storms as well: Lake Michigan. The Lake is still cold right now with water temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s across its southern half. This cold water will also have a stabilizing influence on any storms that develop.
Having said all of that, the very slim threat of a severe storm or two is still there. Here at FOX 17, we’ll be watching the development of these showers and storms closely. Stay tuned!
