WEST MICHIGAN – It’s been in the forecast models for days…a strong, developing low pressure system that will deliver accumulating snow and an Arctic blast of air. What makes it difficult is that this will be the first real storm of the winter season.
For us here in West Michigan, little to no snow accumulation is expected from the system itself. The forecast models have been tracking the low over Michigan, but further north/west from earlier runs. That means we’ll stay ahead of the system in the warm sector and almost all of our precipitation will be in liquid form. We may actually see a changeover to light snow showers or flurries Tuesday evening, but nothing appreciable is anticipated at this point.
On the other hand, the snapshot attached to this story clearly shows almost a dozen states from Michigan’s U.P. all the way to the front range of the Rockies in Montana and Idaho under some type of winter storm warning or winter weather advisory. A solid six to 12 inches is forecast with some higher amounts across the Twin Cities (Minneapolis/St. Paul) of 10 to 16 inches possible. Keep in mind travel and/or connecting flights will certainly be impacted there on Monday/Tuesday.
While West Michigan may miss out on the snow this time, this system will drag down the coldest air of the season from Canada beginning Wednesday. So cold that lake-effect snow showers are likely for us the second half of the week. Accumulations each day should remain in check, but some upper level energy rotating through Wednesday night/Thursday morning will enhance the snow and produce accumulations along/west of U.S. 131. Since this system continues to track further north/west, our winds behind it will be generally westerly off Lake Michigan. That means any snow will tend to get pushed further inland. Compare that to earlier forecast model runs that had our area in a predominant northwesterly flow.
Take a look at this system on our forecast model valid Monday morning. The purple on this map is accumulated precipitation. Note the “L” or low over western Nebraska.
Here’s the same forecast model and another image valid for Monday evening. Note the heavy accumulated precipitation in purple and dark blue. Note the main “L” or low over northwest Missouri.
Here’s the same forecast model valid for Tuesday morning. Again note the “L” or low around Chicago and the bulls-eye of the heaviest precipitation north/west of the low.
Since we’re on the warm side of this storm, our temperatures in West Michigan should briefly make the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. You might find some interesting reading here…the Winter Storm Warning discussionfrom the National Weather Service in Minnesota.
Don’t forget you can get the complete West Michigan 7-Day forecast, temperatures, satellite, or radar at www.fox17online.com/weather
