WEST MICHIGAN — After a warmer than average start to fall, things are changing and quickly. The first 14 days of October have been well above average, making the first half of the month six and a half degrees above average however things are changing as Monday’s cold front dropped Tuesday afternoon temperatures below average for the first time all month. Temperatures have been so warm around West Michigan that our average first day with temperatures at or below freezing has come and gone a week ago, Almost every city in West Michigan with the exception of Battle Creek have missed those average first freezes.
Warmer weather will however become a thing of the past around West Michigan as a series of systems move through the Great Lakes bringing much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will drop so low over the weekend that we may actually see our first temperatures at or around freezing and even our first snow flakes. Rain chances will make Sunday and Monday mornings very interesting if temperatures trend any cooler. At this point a few snow flakes wouldn’t be totally out of the picture for very early on both days. At this point, it is more likely that we will trend slightly warmer, however that combined with warm ground temperatures and a relatively warm lake would make it highly unlikely for a snowflake to survive the eight to ten thousand feet journey to the surface but with that said it isn’t totally impossible.
A first snow in October is not that far from average, as our average first occurrence of snow flakes typically occurs in the first week of November, while the first inch is a few weeks later in the second and third weeks of November. So even if we don’t see snowflakes this weekend, our first snow is just right around the corner.
