WEST MICHIGAN — It's mid-November, and the weather we'll experience this weekend will definitely be representative of what we expect at this time of year: Plenty of changes!
Things will start cold and calm on Saturday morning with a nice sunrise as high pressure sits nearly overhead. This high will keep our skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy through early afternoon, before another November weather system moves our way from the west.
A low pressure system moving across the northern Plains with an attendant warm front will bring increasing clouds, a good chance of showers, and increasing south winds on Saturday evening.
In fact, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Grand Rapids has issued a High Wind Watch for most of the lakeshore from late Saturday night through Sunday evening. There is also a Lakeshore Flood Watch in effect for this same time frame:
Here is how Future Track winds look later in the day on Saturday:
And this is how much rain we might expect Saturday evening according to the European model:
Winds will be on the increase -- as the above graphic shows -- but not to the point where we have any power outages to worry about or knocked over garbage cans. Rainfall amounts also look light during this time.
After midnight, however, the wind will increase further, and rain showers will become steadier and somewhat heavier. This is how much rain we can expect by Sunday afternoon, the bulk of which will fall during the early morning hours:
And a look at RPM model (Future Track) forecast wind speeds and gusts:
To account for this wind, a Gale Warning has actually been issued for Lake Michigan. Gusts over the open waters of the big lake could reach 50 mph, with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected over land.
This Gale Warning begins Saturday afternoon at 3pm, but the strongest winds will actually arrive after 9pm and will last through Sunday and into early Monday morning.
Temperatures will be on a wild roller coaster ride Saturday night into Sunday. As that warm front pushes through the area after midnight, our high temperatures on Sunday morning will likely occur around or just before sunrise. Temperatures will generally climb into the lower 50s by that time:
A cold front will quickly follow that warm front, and temperatures during the day on Sunday will go nowhere but downward. Look for afternoon temperatures to drop into the upper 30s in most locations:
As the temperatures drop behind that cold front, the rain showers will gradually taper off. However, enough cold air could filter in here for some snowflakes to mix in with the rain.
Winds will still be a bit gusty on Monday and Tuesday with occasional flurries possible, but overall it doesn't look as windy as Sunday morning is expected to be. More tranquil weather with somewhat milder temperatures will move in here later in the week. Be sure to stay tuned to FOX 17 for updates!