Severe weather possible Monday P.M.

Posted at 11:27 PM, Jun 20, 2015

WEST MICHIGAN — Conditions are becoming favorable for the possibility of severe weather Monday afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has parts of West Michigan in an “enhanced risk” for severe weather Monday P.M.. See attached photo/thumbnail.

A low pressure system and cold front will approach the state later on Monday. Warm, moist air in place and the arrival of the frontal system may generate the necessary ingredients for large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and the possibility of tornadoes. The wind field looks to be impressive as well with enough speed shear and directional shear to get these storms going. These two types of wind shear can be defined as wind coming in to a location from different directions and at different speeds sometimes creating a turning motion. We’ll also have a lower level jet stream about 5,000 feet above the surface helping to transport the necessary ingredients of moisture, lift, and instability in addition to wind shear. Many of the severe weather indices we examine as meteorologists are quite high on the chart for strong/severe storms to form.

While it’s far from a done deal, any sunshine through the early/mid portion of the day will only help to create more energy and destabilize the atmosphere in the afternoon/evening setting the stage for storms. Conversely, extensive cloud cover and/or a few showers or thunderstorms early in the day may rob the atmosphere of energy or at least prevent it from building up thereby mitigating our severe weather threat. If the severe weather threat is increased, SPC will raise our area in to a “moderate risk.” If it decreases, the threat would be decreased to a “slight risk.” Make sure to stay up on later forecasts!

You can click hereto see the Monday convective outlook and read the SPC discussion. Check out the complete forecast! Happy Father’s Day and welcome to the first day of summer…also known as the summer solstice. Summer officially arrives at 12:38 P.M. on June 21.