WEST MICHIGAN — A low pressure center is expected to develop east of the Rockies over the next few days and move into the Midwest bringing the potential for heavy snow for thousands.
Forecast models are having a difficult time agreeing on the exact track however, all of the four main models that we use, point to the system moving through the Ohio river valley and all four potential outcomes bring a good amount of snow to West Michigan.
Systems such as this particular one are difficult to forecast because the actual system has not formed yet and forecast models tend to disagree more in these scenarios. Slight subtle differences in track and timing can be crucial when forecasting and is something we dealt with last week with our last ice storm. With arctic air in place over the Upper Midwest, we will at least not have to worry about ice as all precipitation that falls will be snow.
What we do know is that a strengthening system will move through the region, likely to our south Tuesday and Wednesday. A forecast track to our south will bring the heaviest snow to the north and northwest of the center of low pressure. What this means is the heaviest snow bands will likely set-up along the Indiana border and move in a west to east direction. The forecast movement and timing is already suggesting that this will likely be a longer event lasting between 12 to 36 hours from first snowflake to last. Add cold temperatures into the mix, which makes for efficient snow production and you have the potential for larger accumulations. The key over the next 12 to 24 hours or so will be to see how the forecast models change once the system starts to form.
While each scenario will bring subtle differences in the extent and amount of snow, all agree on snow impacting West Michigan. Here is a look at four of the scenarios from forecast models this morning:
#1: The European global model takes the track of the low pressure center through the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys Tuesday and Wednesday but takes a slower approach. This slower approach would allow for lighter snow totals but would bring the heaviest amount of snow between the I-94 and I-96 corridors.
#2: The American global model differs slightly with the European model but still brings the heaviest amount of snow into the I-94 and I-96 corridors. The slight difference is the timing and intensity of the low. The American model creates a more intense and fast-moving low which would bring higher snow totals to West Michigan.
#3: The North American model is by far the most intense and brings the most snow to West Michigan out of all of the models. This particular model brings the track of the low slightly farther to the north which would bring the most intense snow band along and north of the I-94 corridor.
#4: The final model is our in-house FutureTrack HD, while this model is similar to both the American and North American models in track and timing it leans more with the European with intensity and total snow fall.
As you can see from all four models, it is highly likely that West Michigan will be impacted by a snow storm over the New Year’s holiday. While we are still fine tuning the forecast, it is important for all of West Michigan to be prepared to be impacted by snowfall which could be heavy at times and last for an extended period of time. At this point it looks safe to say that snowfall totals of 5 to 9 inches will be possible especially along the I-94 corridor, including Kalamazoo and Battle Creek with locally heavier amounts along the Lakeshore from South Haven to Benton Harbor. We will continue to bring you updates over the next few days as this system develops and moves into the region.
