West Michigan is in ‘active weather pattern’ thru Memorial Day

Posted at 11:52 AM, May 23, 2019
and last updated 2019-05-23 11:52:14-04

After some localized heavy downpours within scattered thundershowers in the overnight across West Michigan and even some stronger, gustier thunderstorms southward across St. Joseph and Branch Counties, it's looking quieter for the rest of this Thursday. Mostly sunny and windy conditions are in store with highs in the low 70s. Any active weather involving severe thunderstorms stays well to our southwest and well to our east today into tonight.

Thursday night shakes out mostly clear to eventually partly cloudy but quite cool again with lows in the upper 40s. Friday is a bit of a tough forecast with models battling each other on what exactly will happen. It appears that an overnight weather disturbance out to our west may continue in our general direction Friday morning ( while weakening ) and bring some showers, perhaps a thundershower, mid-late morning into the early afternoon.  A dry period may arrive for the mid-late afternoon / early-mid evening stretch as a new action zone of thunderstorms sets up out to our west and southwest in a corridor stretching from eastern Kansas northeastward through eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and Wisconsin. This activity will be out ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.

A consensus of information says that these thunderstorms will make a move eastward into West Michigan at some point late Friday evening or early Saturday morning. Though this is not the ideal time for severe weather, a few gusty storms will be possible during this time frame. Some scattered wet weather can linger into Saturday afternoon before diminishing and settling southward into northern Indiana. This should set up a drier period under partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday night though Sunday though showers and thunderstorms will not be too far off to the south.

A new strong area of low pressure will be developing out over the northern plains states late Sunday into Memorial Day Monday shifting our winds back to the south and encouraging warmer air to ride northward into our region. Current indications keep the heaviest rain and thunderstorms to our west and northwest on Monday tied closer to the path of low pressure. However, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible during the afternoon. Stay tuned to future forecasts as this active pattern can yield changes to the timing and significance of any particular round of rain and thunderstorms.