WEST MICHIGAN — A nearly stationary front to our northwest, combined with a series of disturbances moving along it will trigger a couple of rounds of thunderstorms over the FOX 17 viewing area through Friday morning. The first round will most likely come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as an upper level disturbance moves across Lake Michigan and into our viewing area:
The above forecast model suggests these storms will fall apart as they cross Lake Michigan, but it’s still very possible that they will stay organized enough to bring some locally heavy rain. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK has the entire viewing area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight:
Although it’s highly unlikely that severe thunderstorms will survive the trip across the cold waters of Lake Michigan at this time of year, we will still keep an eye on the situation.
More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day on Thursday, but the threat of heavier rain will most likely hold off until Thursday night and Friday morning as the above mentioned front slowly drifts southward and into West Michigan. In addition, another upper level disturbance moving along this front will enhance the rainfall potential:
The SPC also has much of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather again Thursday into Thursday night:
Again, severe weather looks fairly unlikely in this case. The best chance would be over areas south of I-94, but even there the threat looks rather low.
These two rounds of thunderstorms — combined with the threat of scattered showers and storms through the day on Thursday — could bring over an inch of rain to much of the area. This is how much rain the European model suggests will fall between now and Friday morning:
Of course, this rainfall is needed after all the brush fires and wildfires the area has endured over the past several days.
However, the forecast is looking pretty nice this weekend for outdoor plans. A little rain is possible on Sunday, but Saturday is looking dry. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages for this time of year, with highs in the middle 60s to near 70°. Stay tuned to FOX 17 for updates on the thunderstorm threat over the next couple of days, and for updates on your extended forecast!